The race for the White House has begun and the outcome of the US Presidential Election in 2020 will have a global impact. This page provides an in-depth analysis of developments surrounding the US Election in November 2020 and its impact on transatlantic trade and business.

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US Election 2020 Media Library

"Beyond the Campaign Trail: The Future of the American Presidency"


Virtual Discussion with David Frum from The Atlantic and Peter Baker from The New York Times


On October 9, 2020, AmCham Germany co-hosted a discussion with David Frum, Staff Writer for The Atlantic, and Peter Baker, Chief White House Correspondent for The New York Times, as a part of the Road to Election Night virtual event series. The discussion, which was moderated by Vendeline von Bredow, European Business and Finance Correspondent at The Economist, focused on the topic: "Looking Beyond the Campaign Trail: The Future of the American Presidency".

At the beginning of the discussion, David Frum provided insight into the status of economic package talks surrounding COVID-19. Due to the collapse of such talks, President Trump's favorability is likely to decrease, as many Americans have been left with little economic support during the pandemic. Frum also noted how this election is likely to see a large increase in turnout: Over 150 million Americans are expected to vote, compared to 125-130 million from 2016. Moreover, if election polling is accurate, Trump is likely to witness a deficit of 10-12 million popular votes. Finally, Frum gave an overview of the electoral map in the US and how this is changing. In contrast to speaking of blue states versus red states, he noted that the change is actually occuring in cities versus rural areas.

Peter Baker also spoke about electoral polls and the changing demographics in the US; however, he also pointed out that state polls were not taken into consideration in the 2016 election, leading to Trump's surprise victory. Too many institutions took a small lead for Hillary Clinton and extrapolated it beyond what the numbers were indicating. Nevertheless, Baker noted that the numbers are not in Trump's favor and that no incumbent historically has witnessed such low ratings. In terms of electoral strategies, Trump is hoping to replicate his victory from four years ago - that is, win the electoral vote rather than the popular vote. He also drew attention to the problem that absentee voting versus physical voting will present: The count on election night could be incomplete, especially if important swing states do not count all of their absentee ballots until shortly after the election.

Click here to watch the entire discussion online

The event was co-hosted with the Aspen Institute, the American Academy in Berlin, the Atlantik-Brücke, the American Council on Germany, the Deutsche-Atlantische Gesellschaft, the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, the Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung, the Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung, the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, AmerikaHaus Nordrhein-Westfalen and amerikahaus. 

We'd like to thank the speakers as well as all participants for such an insightful discussion!

 

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Information Hub


Our US Presidential Election Information Hub keeps you updated on the latest developments concerning the US Election and its impact on transatlantic business. Here, you’ll find results from surveys with our members on election developments, answers to frequently asked questions, information about events and reading recommendations. We’ll also provide you with the latest information about new activities at AmCham Germany, such as virtual events. 

*AmCham Germany is part of the virtual event series Road to Election Night & Beyond. Below you will find AmCham Germany and Road to Election Night events and the registration links for all the events in conncetion with the US Presidential Election 2020.

 

Insights Call Webinar | 2020 US Presidential Election Outlook

  • Date | Tuesday, September 22, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM

  • Speaker | former Senate Majority Leader Senator Tom Daschle

  • Host | The Daschle Group, a Public Policy Advisory of Baker Donelson

  • Register here.

 

Road to Election Night & Beyond | Knowing Each Other? Mutual Perceptions Across the Atlantic

  • Date| Wednesday, September 23, 2020 | 5:00 PM – 6:00 PM

  • Speaker | Dr. Emily Haber, Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to the United States and John Emerson, Former Ambassador of the United States to Germany, Chairman of the American Council on Germany

  • Register here.

 

14th Transatlantic Business Conference (Virtual)

  • Date | November 12, 2020 (03:00 PM - 06:30 PM)

  • Panel 1 | US Election: What Can We Expect Now?

  • Panel 2 | The Road to Economic Recovery: The Transatlantic Partnership Post COVID-19

As part of its ongoing communications activities, AmCham Germany will be conducting frequent surveys among its members on the US Presidential Election 2020. The first member survey was conducted in September 2020.


Member Survey on the US before the Presidential Election - September 2020

Main takeaways:
 

  • According to survey participants, the next US Administration after the election should focus on free trade, healthcare, infrastructure and energy policy.
  • The majority of surveyed members believe that prospects for a transatlantic free trade agreement could improve under a possible Biden Administration.

Read our press release and view the entire survey results.