The Presidential election was expected to be a referendum about Trump’s leadership throughout the Corona-pandemic. The result to date sees the US at the edge of a constitutional crisis, leaving open the question about the next US-President but also the road to a decision.
It would be difficult to find a political issue that can be solved better under a second Trump administration rather than a Biden one. It would contribute global scale issues such as climate change or the Corona pandemic to see someone in the Oval Office who is more committed to science and facts. Nevertheless, also Biden would struggle to rebuild the bridges with the WHO or the Paris agreement that Trump burned down. Further, Trump´s administration has left the negotiation table about a global digital tax at the OECD. Biden’s commitment to the role of the US in the international community can help finding a global solution here and prevent less effective regional or even national solo efforts. Since the end of Obama’s second term, negotiations about an EU-US trade agreement also came to a halt. In order to revitalize the, on both sides, much demanded deal a Biden victory would be far more promising.
In summary, the expectation towards the next administration is clear. The EU-US economic ties are strong. Both sides must integrate, not engage in economic and tariff battles. The EU-US political relations must live up to its economic interdependence.
There are also topics where the difference between Biden and Trump would be a matter of political style rather than substantially different positions. Biden is expected to serve the office in a more diplomatic way, still many of his expectations towards Germany and Europe would not differ too much from the course of the Trump administration. The US would remain the biggest critic of the Russian-German Nordstream II pipeline. They would not get tired to express their view on the installation of a Huawei 5G infrastructure in Europe. Also, the US demand towards its NATO partners to meet the 2% target would certainly not calm down.
The expectation that the EU-US relationship would be fully aligned under a Biden administration is unrealistic. Nevertheless, EU-US relations look far more fruitful under a Biden rather than a Trump presidency, especially regarding time-critical issues such as climate change, the Corona pandemic or a trade agreement.
Find our analysis by Frank Samolis, Senior Advisor AmCham Germany in Washington, DC on the next US Presidency here.
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